Thought Leadership Resource Center
The Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell will hold its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, May 3rd. The central bank is largely expected to deliver on another 25-basis point hike to the Fed Funds rate, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 5.00% - 5.25%. This would mark the 10th straight rate hike this cycle and take the Fed Funds rate to its highest level since 2007.
Read MoreThe most significant challenge for the U.S. economy has shifted from an uncertain path for monetary policy to a potential banking crisis and associated issues connected with tightening credit conditions.
The supply of bank credit is an important driver of macroeconomic outcomes and a contraction in credit availability serves to further slow already decelerating economic activity. Banks will likely raise lending standards in response to the current set of problems and the pace of new loan origination, for businesses and consumers alike, will decline.
Read MoreThe new year has begun very much as we had expected with inflation proving to be more sticky than many investors had expected, and another bear market rally in equities is unraveling, just as the seven prior such rallies have.
Read MoreWe have long promised our clients that when the facts change, our outlook would change. This said, our base case has shifted to a less constructive view of the economy over the next 12 to 18 months. We now expect that economic growth to disappoint and a recession to occur 2023. This said, we are not expecting the recession to be particularly long or deep. By mid-2023 the worst may be behind us, and risk assets could begin a sustained move higher.
Read MoreSeptember gave the U.S. equity markets its worst selloff since November of 2020. In my last Private Client Letter from one month ago, I observed that “a turning point may be nearing” as October is historically a positive month.
Read MoreStagflation is the term used to describe an economy that has stagnate economic growth while having higher inflation and higher unemployment. Stagflation can be seemingly contradictory as stagnate economic output leads to higher unemployment, which normally should not lead to rising prices as economic demand falls. For the most part stagflation is rare, in fact we have not seen a stagflation type period for almost 50 years. We have to go back to the 1970’s to find a true stagflationary period.
Read MoreEconomists and analysts began the year with relatively muted expectations for the U.S. economy. Emergency use authorizations for COVID-19 vaccines were just being issued and there was much uncertainty surrounding their availability and efficacy. Understandably, most forecasts for the reopening of the economy were cautious, if not grim. At the beginning of the year our country was still very much in lockdown mode and while hopeful, true optimism was hard to come by.
Read MoreDisclosures:
THIS COMMENTARY HAS BEEN PREPARED BY CLEARWATER CAPITAL PARTNERS. THE OPINIONS VOICED IN THIS MATERIAL ARE FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE OR BE CONSTRUED AS PROVIDING LEGAL, ACCOUNTING, OR SPECIFIC INVESTMENT ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ANY INDIVIDUAL. ALL ECONOMIC DATA IS DERIVED FROM PUBLIC SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE. TO DETERMINE WHICH INVESTMENTS MAY BE APPROPRIATE FOR YOU, PLEASE CONSULT WITH US PRIOR TO INVESTING. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK WHICH MAY INCLUDE LOSS OF PRINCIPAL. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, insurance products, or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of writing and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Clearwater Capital Partners to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. S&P 500 is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, a division of S&P Global (“S&P”) DOW JONES, DJ, DJIA and DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE are registered trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings (“Dow Jones”). The two main risks related to fixed-income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments.
Welcome to the Clearwater Capital Partners Thought Leadership Resource Center. This website is for the exclusive use of clients and friends of Clearwater Capital Partners. The Thought Leadership Resource Center represents the complete library of all original Clearwater Capital content.
© Clearwater Capital Partners
Investment Advice Offered Through Clearwater Capital Partners, A Registered Investment Advisor
