Yield Curve - What’s Going On

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Yield Curve - What’s Going On

With the recent flattening of the yield curve, investors are beginning to get flashbacks to 2018 when the “inverted yield curve” was stamped across every financial rag. It is a legitimate pause point, as almost every recession has been predated by an inverted yield curve.It is crucial to follow up this up with the fact that not every yield curve inversion has actually led to a recession. In an analogy by Bespoke, “it is kind of like the square-rectangular phenomenon whereas in a square is always a rectangle, but a rectangle isn’t always a square.

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Investing in Stocks in an Escalating Market Environment – A Few Considerations for Every Investor

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Investing in Stocks in an Escalating Market Environment – A Few Considerations for Every Investor

In December 2018, our team wrote a piece called “Losing Money” as a Long-Term Investor. In that article, the primary message was for investors to stay the course with a personal long-term investment plan and to prevent making irrational decisions due to stock market volatility that occurs along the way.

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August Private Client Letter

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August Private Client Letter

Economists and analysts began the year with relatively muted expectations for the U.S. economy. Emergency use authorizations for COVID-19 vaccines were just being issued and there was much uncertainty surrounding their availability and efficacy. Understandably, most forecasts for the reopening of the economy were cautious, if not grim. At the beginning of the year our country was still very much in lockdown mode and while hopeful, true optimism was hard to come by.

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Outlook 2021 - Mid Year Update

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Outlook 2021 - Mid Year Update

Hard to believe it, but we have reached the midpoint of 2021 already and have finished one of the best first-half starts in years. In fact, with a gain of 14.4% it was the S&P's second best first-half performance since 1998. For the record, the Dow ended the first-half with a 12.7% gain, the Nasdaq with a 12.5% gain, and the small-cap Russell 2000 with a 17.0% gain!

The S&P has now advanced more than 5% in five consecutive quarters - for only the second time in history (1953-1954). Back then, stocks added another 26.4% over the next four quarters, so perhaps we should be open to the possibility for continued strength in the second half of the year and into 2022.

Everything about the past year-and-a-half has been unique and it is as important as ever to maintain an intelligent framework for decision making. To this end, we are pleased to present our Outlook 2021 Mid-Year Update. Here you will find our latest forecasts for what may be coming our way.

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Outlook 2020 - Mid Year Update

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Outlook 2020 - Mid Year Update

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate our lives, the economy and capital markets. Our base case for the economy and markets presented in our Outlook 2020 report, published just last January, has been wiped out by the COVID outbreak. We must now reconstruct our expectations for the balance of the year – while assessing a recovery that will likely stretch into 2021 and 2022.

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