October Private Client Letter

October Private Client Letter

Over the past several months I have warned of potential weakness in equities following a rally earlier in the year that saw the S&P 500 rise by as much as 20% from the beginning of the year.  It appeared that valuations were being stretched as the market breadth narrowed.  In other words, equity prices were rising faster than corporate earnings and the gains had become dominated by only a handful of mega cap names in the communication and information technology sectors. 

Read More

April Private Client Letter - Recession Risks Continue to Rise

April Private Client Letter  - Recession Risks Continue to Rise

The most significant challenge for the U.S. economy has shifted from an uncertain path for monetary policy to a potential banking crisis and associated issues connected with tightening credit conditions. 

The supply of bank credit is an important driver of macroeconomic outcomes and a contraction in credit availability serves to further slow already decelerating economic activity.  Banks will likely raise lending standards in response to the current set of problems and the pace of new loan origination, for businesses and consumers alike, will decline.  

Read More