December Private Client Letter

December Private Client Letter

Recession fears have eased significantly since the summer, driving renewed investor confidence and a surging stock market. The S&P 500 gained 5.7% in November as the Index delivered its best monthly return in a year and ninth winning month out of 11. With the national elections now concluded, stocks benefited from steady economic and earnings growth and the anticipation for pro-growth policies emerging from Trump’s second term in office. Small cap stocks did particularly well in November as the Russell 2000 rallied 10.8% on anticipation of tax cuts and trade policy that favors domestic producers.

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Private Client Letter | Special Post-Election Edition

Private Client Letter | Special Post-Election Edition

It has been two weeks since the national election and many of the inferences of a second Trump presidency are beginning to come into focus.  With Republicans about to take control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives we can expect sweeping changes to many important policies impacting the future trajectory of the economy.

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The Stage is Being Set for Small Cap Equities

The Stage is Being Set for Small Cap Equities

U.S. small-cap companies (market capitalization between $900 million and $6 billion) have underperformed their U.S. large-cap (market capitalization above $16 billion) counterparts over the last few years, but we believe there are a few key reasons why the stage is being set for small caps to play some catch-up.

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October Private Client Letter

October Private Client Letter

Over the past several months I have warned of potential weakness in equities following a rally earlier in the year that saw the S&P 500 rise by as much as 20% from the beginning of the year.  It appeared that valuations were being stretched as the market breadth narrowed.  In other words, equity prices were rising faster than corporate earnings and the gains had become dominated by only a handful of mega cap names in the communication and information technology sectors. 

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April Private Client Letter - Recession Risks Continue to Rise

April Private Client Letter  - Recession Risks Continue to Rise

The most significant challenge for the U.S. economy has shifted from an uncertain path for monetary policy to a potential banking crisis and associated issues connected with tightening credit conditions. 

The supply of bank credit is an important driver of macroeconomic outcomes and a contraction in credit availability serves to further slow already decelerating economic activity.  Banks will likely raise lending standards in response to the current set of problems and the pace of new loan origination, for businesses and consumers alike, will decline.  

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