October Private Client Letter

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October Private Client Letter

Over the past several months I have warned of potential weakness in equities following a rally earlier in the year that saw the S&P 500 rise by as much as 20% from the beginning of the year.  It appeared that valuations were being stretched as the market breadth narrowed.  In other words, equity prices were rising faster than corporate earnings and the gains had become dominated by only a handful of mega cap names in the communication and information technology sectors. 

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May Private Client Letter - Sell in May and Go Away?

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May Private Client Letter - Sell in May and Go Away?

The Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell will hold its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, May 3rd.  The central bank is largely expected to deliver on another 25-basis point hike to the Fed Funds rate, bringing the benchmark rate to a range of 5.00% - 5.25%.   This would mark the 10th straight rate hike this cycle and take the Fed Funds rate to its highest level since 2007.  

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April Private Client Letter - Recession Risks Continue to Rise

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April Private Client Letter - Recession Risks Continue to Rise

The most significant challenge for the U.S. economy has shifted from an uncertain path for monetary policy to a potential banking crisis and associated issues connected with tightening credit conditions. 

The supply of bank credit is an important driver of macroeconomic outcomes and a contraction in credit availability serves to further slow already decelerating economic activity.  Banks will likely raise lending standards in response to the current set of problems and the pace of new loan origination, for businesses and consumers alike, will decline.  

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Special Market Update 3-15-2022

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Special Market Update 3-15-2022

For more than two weeks, the people of Ukraine have bravely fought back against the Russian invasion of their sovereign country. By all accounts, their resistance has far exceeded the original prediction that the country would fall in days, if not hours. While it is widely believed that Russia maintains a military advantage, things have not gone well for Putin. The growing fear now is that Putin, having cornered himself, may soon begin to act even more irrationally and indiscriminately.

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February Private Client Letter

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February Private Client Letter

After a strong 2021, stock market volatility returned in dramatic fashion in January. The S&P 500 has had an intraday trading range of at least 2.25% in January’s final week (Bespoke). The average stock is down a little more than 9% so far in 2022, but stocks with the highest valuations are down closer to 20%.

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2021 Equity Target Achieved

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2021 Equity Target Achieved

Over the years, Clearwater Capital Partners has maintained the discipline of establishing specific targets for a variety of economic indicators and capital markets. These forecasts are intended to bring practical application and transparency to our economic thesis. Our predictions revolve around highly recognized measurements and indexes; and this tradition provides our readers with a straightforward means by which to monitor the efficacy of our outlook.

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April Private Client Letter

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April Private Client Letter

It has been just over a year since the equity markets hit their COVID-19 lows. On Monday March 23rd, 2020, the broad indices all hit new lows after nearly a month of indiscriminate selling as the scope of the pandemic became clear. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have both gained just about 80% and the NASDAQ 100 is up about 90%. Many large cap stocks have doubled, tripled or more from their panic-induced 2020 lows.

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May We Live in Interesting Times - Private Client Letter

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May We Live in Interesting Times - Private Client Letter

To say that we are living in “interesting times” would not do justice to what we all have experienced since the COVID-19 outbreak made headlines in February. What began as a serious health crisis quickly turned into an economic collapse as government leaders issued lockdown orders and essentially brought large parts of our economy to a standstill. Never before has the United States shut off its economy by proclamation. Interesting times indeed!!

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