November Private Client Letter - A Complicated and Shifting Environment

November Private Client Letter - A Complicated and Shifting Environment

We have long promised our clients that when the facts change, our outlook would change. This said, our base case has shifted to a less constructive view of the economy over the next 12 to 18 months. We now expect that economic growth to disappoint and a recession to occur 2023. This said, we are not expecting the recession to be particularly long or deep. By mid-2023 the worst may be behind us, and risk assets could begin a sustained move higher.

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Inflation on All Fronts

Inflation on All Fronts

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and in the short term can be affected by supply/demand dynamics. The Investment Policy Committee of Clearwater Capital has written extensively about the dramatic rise in the M-2 Money Supply over the last two years emanating from fiscal spending which ‘flooded the world with cash’ following the COVID shutdown of the economy.

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