November Private Client Letter - A Complicated and Shifting Environment

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November Private Client Letter - A Complicated and Shifting Environment

We have long promised our clients that when the facts change, our outlook would change. This said, our base case has shifted to a less constructive view of the economy over the next 12 to 18 months. We now expect that economic growth to disappoint and a recession to occur 2023. This said, we are not expecting the recession to be particularly long or deep. By mid-2023 the worst may be behind us, and risk assets could begin a sustained move higher.

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April Private Client Letter

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April Private Client Letter

The capital markets have been operating in a nervous phase of uncertainty and volatility from the beginning of the year. Investors have been unable to gain any meaningful traction as nearly every traditional asset class has been under pressure.

We are seeing a large-scale conflict between favorable economic data and decent corporate earnings, with a decades-high rate of inflation and the appalling war in Ukraine. Economic fundamentals and growing corporate profits would normally be net positives for the markets. However, high inflation is quickly driving tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates. This, along with ongoing geopolitical distress, are net negatives for the markets.

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