Thought Leadership Resource Center
We had generally expected 2022 would be a year in which a recession was unlikely and pent-up demand lingering from the COVID pandemic would fuel continued economic growth. It looks like we may have gotten at least one of those expectations right. In our Outlook 2022 report we even observed that the Fed would likely “begin raising rates in 2022, as soon as March”, which is exactly what they did.
Read MoreOur economic outlook has not changed much in recent weeks. We expect the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy will keep equity market volatility high and range bound into 2023. Any indication that the Fed is contemplating a pause in early 2023 will drive sharp rallies. Any data reports that suggest inflation remains stubbornly high will trigger selloffs in equity markets. This reality was on full display as November ended and December began.
Read MoreAs rates have increased in 2022, short term fixed income yields are the highest they’ve been in nearly 15 years. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening monetary policy to bring down inflation by increasing the Federal Funds Rate. The actions of the Fed and other central banks around the world have resulted in significant volatility in equities and in interest rates.
Read More“Good things come to those who wait.” “Time is money.” “Patience is a virtue.” All famous adages that you probably didn’t ever associate with one of the main discussion points of retirement, Social Security.
Read MoreCreating and maintaining an updated estate plan is among the most important gifts you can provide for your family and those who you care most about in life. However, many find addressing the sensitive questions involved with legacy planning to be uncomfortable and, because of that, they may delay organizing the proper estate-related documents until it is too late.
Read MoreSam Bankman-Fried (SBF)…his name may not mean much to you, but he has become extremely popular within the cryptocurrency space… and not for good reasons. Until this last month, Sam was a crypto juggernaut. He began by his crypto fame by co-founding a crypto trading firm called Alameda Research back in 2017. In 2019, Sam stepped down from his CEO role at Alameda Research to found FTX, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange. FTX experienced immense success and was valued at $32 billion earlier this year. As the title of the article suggests, this success came to a drastic halt. On Nov. 11th, 2022, FTX filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in which 130 affiliated companies are included in the proceedings.
Read MoreThe primary outcome from the mid-term election results is likely a divided control of government, which is historically viewed as market-friendly overall. There’s still some counting to do in some key races, but it appears as though Republicans will take the House. The latest odds point to a roughly 13-seat House majority, with some possibility it will be narrower. Control of the Senate is down to three Senate seats and may not be finalized until the runoff election in Georgia is completed on December 6th.
Read MoreWe have long promised our clients that when the facts change, our outlook would change. This said, our base case has shifted to a less constructive view of the economy over the next 12 to 18 months. We now expect that economic growth to disappoint and a recession to occur 2023. This said, we are not expecting the recession to be particularly long or deep. By mid-2023 the worst may be behind us, and risk assets could begin a sustained move higher.
Read MoreInflation has been the hot button topic of the year. Seemingly every article, news segment, or social media post in regard to the market or economy will include at least some reference to inflation and the role it plays. Most of these references are about its effect on the consumer or how it has changed outlooks for various companies. What perhaps is lesser known, however, is the role CPI has in many government-stipulated figures such as Social Security benefits, qualified plan contribution limits, and income tax brackets. This article will focus on the various figures that are, in one way or another, tied to the CPI and its implications for American investors and retirees.
Read MoreWhile 2022 has been a down year for the stock and bond markets, there are some actions that long-term investors can take now in order to take advantage of the market dip from an overall financial planning standpoint. For example, although it might not make sense for everybody, some investors may benefit from completing a Roth IRA conversion before the end of the year.
Read MoreIn our Midyear Update I observed “the current market environment is about as challenging as any I can recall in the past 40 years” and three months later this remains the case. Inflation continues to be the dominant challenge as the Federal Reserve has surged their hawkish rhetoric along with the fastest interest rate tightening cycle in the past half century.
Read MoreThe effective management of family wealth requires a comprehensive integrated approach. At Clearwater Capital Partners, we strive to offer the right services, to the right clients, at the right time. For all clients, some level of integrated financial planning is necessary. In this piece, we will explore how the different attributes of each client drive our decision making as to what the right services and times are for those individuals. Subsequent thought leadership will expand on what integrated financial planning & wealth strategy look like for each type of client.
Read MoreEthereum is the second largest crypto investment by theoretical value ($156.23B), second only to Bitcoin ($367.35B). Ethereum has been in the news recently as it has undergone a massive update (the Merge) that has Ethereum investors and supporters excited for the future. In order to understand the Impact these updates will have, let’s first look at what Ethereum is, and how it operates.
Read MoreAs I write this article, my daughter happens to be on a flight to Italy where she will be visiting a friend. For those who know me and my background, it is probably not a surprise that one of the things that I pointed out to her prior to her trip was the timeliness of her visit because of how cheap it currently is for Americans travelling to most countries outside of the U.S., including Italy.
Read MoreMarkets can be volatile and while investment losses are never the goal, they can present opportunities for tax efficient portfolio management. Tax loss harvesting is simply the strategy where you sell investments with capital losses to offset realized capital gains. Consider the following example:
Read MoreOne of the most significant drivers of the poor performance of the stock market this year has been the dramatic rise in interest rates, which are moving higher in response to the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation. As rates have moved higher in 2022, stocks have fallen. That relationship is based on the uncertainty around how high the Federal Reserve will need to take rates to get inflation under control, and whether they will be forced to raise rates to a level that will cause a recession. However, history tells us that stocks tend to bottom and begin the recovery rally well before inflation is “under control” and, typically, well before the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates. They also tend to bottom before the economy exits recession.
Read MoreYesterday the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) voted unanimously to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point bringing the federal funds rate to 3.00 – 3.25%. More importantly, updated forecasts for future rate increases reflect a more hawkish path through 2023.
We now expect another 75-basis point hike at their next meeting in November, followed by a 50-point hike in December. Additional, albeit smaller, rate hikes will likely continue into 2023. As of today, 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect Fed Funds between 4.50% and 5.0% by the end of next year.
Read MorePresident Biden’s proposed Student Debt Forgivness plan has garnered much attention since it was announced on August 24th 2022. The proposed plan has not been without controversy, but has left many borrowers wondering what it would actually mean for them. Who does it apply to? How does it work? This article will not cover the various few points of the supporters or proponents, nor my opinion of its efficacy, but rather provide a general overview of how it would actually work if enacted.
Read MoreThis has been a difficult year for stocks, and it may not get much easier in the near term. September is historically a tough month for equities. Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a 0.54% decline in September, the worst of all 12 months.
Read MoreInflation Reduction Act Summary
If you have been following the political news lately, I am sure you have heard of the Inflation Reduction Act. Often it is difficult to get away from the sound bites meant to stir controversy and determine what is in new legislation, and how to respond accordingly. In this thought leadership piece, we have sought to distil down the main points of the new act into a concise summary and call out where action may be appropriate.
Read MoreDisclosures:
THIS COMMENTARY HAS BEEN PREPARED BY CLEARWATER CAPITAL PARTNERS. THE OPINIONS VOICED IN THIS MATERIAL ARE FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE OR BE CONSTRUED AS PROVIDING LEGAL, ACCOUNTING, OR SPECIFIC INVESTMENT ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ANY INDIVIDUAL. ALL ECONOMIC DATA IS DERIVED FROM PUBLIC SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE. TO DETERMINE WHICH INVESTMENTS MAY BE APPROPRIATE FOR YOU, PLEASE CONSULT WITH US PRIOR TO INVESTING. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK WHICH MAY INCLUDE LOSS OF PRINCIPAL.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, insurance products, or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of writing and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Clearwater Capital Partners to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index. S&P 500 is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, a division of S&P Global (“S&P”) DOW JONES, DJ, DJIA and DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE are registered trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings (“Dow Jones”). FTSE Russell® is a trading name of FTSE, Russell, FTSE Canada, FTSE FI, FTSE FI Europe, WOFE, RBSL, RL, and BR. “FTSE®” “Russell®”, “FTSE Russell®”, “FTSE4Good®”, “ICB®”, “Refinitiv”, “Beyond Ratings®”, “WMRTM”, “FRTM” and all other trademarks and service marks used herein are trademarks and/or service marks owned or licensed by the applicable member of LSEG or their respective licensors and are owned, or used under license, by FTSE, Russell, FTSE Canada, FTSE FI, FTSE FI Europe, WOFE, RBSL, RL or BR. The two main risks related to fixed-income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments.
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